Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool & Chelsea 2026 analysed – Who will miss out on top five?

Villa v Chelsea Wednesday 

Given English team’s dominance in European football so far this season, the Premier League is all but guaranteed to have five automatic places for next season’s Champions League. Barring a collapse, Arsenal and Manchester City are set to finish first or second, one way or the other. But an enthralling battle is building for the next three places. The likes of Brentford, Everton or Fulham could still make a late push, but it’s likely that three of: Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool or Chelsea will seal those three spots.

There was a time where Villa looked nailed on for the Champions League places, and were even being talked about as title contenders, but a run of poor form has thrown them right back into the battle, and they face a huge match against Chelsea at Villa Park this Wednesday. Man United have been a revelation since Michael Carrick took the wheel, whilst Liverpool and Chelsea have seem to keep stalling after gathering runs of form. As the fight for the top five heats up, here at Transfermarkt, we’ve analysed the 2026 form of the four main contenders to try and determine who might miss out.

Champions League chasing teams 2026 stats analysed

Since the turn of the year, it’s to no great surprise that Man United come well out on top in the form table. The Red Devils have taken 2.33 points-per-game (ppg) and boast a +8 goal difference. This calendar year in the Premier League, they have won six, drawn three and lost none. They are without doubt the form team, and are the favourites from the group to secure Champions League football. They also have no distractions, being out of the both domestic cups and with no European football at Old Trafford this term.

There is then a considerable drop to Chelsea, who have taken 1.67ppg in 2026. There was an upturn in form when Liam Rosenior first took over; he won his opening four Premier League games. However, results have stalled since, without a win in three after disappointing draws to Leeds and Burnley and a narrow defeat to league leaders Arsenal. Chelsea also face a tough tie against holder Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League and remain in the FA Cup.

Despite signs of turning a corner, Liverpool have failed to show consistency, and the 2-1 defeat to bottom-placed Wolves on Tuesday was perhaps the lowest of the low points. This came after a convincing 5-2 win against West Ham and encapsulates the ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ nature of their season. In 2026 to date, Arne Slot’s team have taken just 1.45ppg. They, like Chelsea, also remain in both the Champions League and FA Cup.

Then the worst form of the lot goes to Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s side are ravaged by injury in midfield, with John McGinn, Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans all currently unavailable. They have taken just 1.33ppg since the turn of the year and are now in serious danger of letting their superb first half of the season get somewhat diminished. They also remain in the Europa League and have the shallowest squad of the contenders.