Likely to be no Italian teams in Champions League round of 16 for very first time – what’s happened to Serie A?

Juve & Atalanta face deficits 

From the aura-filled Juventus of the nineties, to AC Milan’s star studded team of the noughties, to José Mourinho’s formidable Inter Milan of 2010, some of the very best teams and players to ever grace the Champions League have emanated from the giants of Serie A. Between 1993 and 2010, five of the 18 winners were Italian teams. Inter have also made two of the last three finals, losing to Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain.

However, this term, for the very first time, we could see an entire Champions League round of 16 without a single Serie A team. Scudetto winners Napoli embarrassingly crashed out in the league phase, whilst current Serie A leaders Inter Milan were shocked by Arctic circle minnows BodøGlimt, losing 5-2 on aggregate. Juventus face the uphill task of turning around a 5-2 deficit against Galatasaray, whilst Atalanta are 2-0 down against Borussia Dortmund. So the prospect of the last 16 being Italian-less seems pretty likely. Let’s take a look at Serie A’s downfall and get expert insight from Italy itself on the reasons behind the demise.

The worst ever Champions League season for Serie A?

Illustrated in the graphic below is the number of Serie A teams to make it to the last 16 of the Champions League in the past 15 seasons. In that time period, at least two Italian teams have made it on 11 occasions, whilst three Italian sides have progressed to that stage five times. There have been just three seasons where only one Serie A team has made it, including last year when it was just Inter. But never have we seen no Italian sides in the round of 16 – not only in the last 15 seasons, but since the rebrand in the 1992/93 campaign.

There is no reason why either Juventus or Atalanta can’t turn things around and fly the flag for Italy. But Juve are currently 5-2 down to Turkish giants Galatasaray, with Opta giving them just a 7.4% chance of progressing. Atalanta are 2-0 down against Borussia Dortmund with Opta giving them a 10.8% chance of making it through. The Old Lady are currently fifth in the Serie A table, with I Nerazzurri in seventh position. It would take some turnaround to make it. Let’s now cross over to Italy to get some insight to the reasons behind this downfall.

What’s gone wrong for Serie A?

“This seems to me to be a classic bad year,” admits Stefano Buonfino, one of Transfermarkt’s Content Managers in Italy. “Inter are trying to start a new cycle by bringing in young players and a potential great coach with little experience, Juventus need to resolve some technical and managerial issues, Napoli have Antonio Conte on the bench, who we already know is a Ferrari in the league but a Fiat Panda in the Champions League, and Atalanta are a great project from a small city and just being there is a great achievement. Milan were missing from the cups this year but are finding their feet again with Allegri. There are red flags, of course, but no major drama for me.”

Buonfino admits there have been some serious issues in the Italian top-flight, but actually believes there have been signs of improvement: “Serie A has been in deep crisis over the last decade, but in recent years it has been recovering with many European finals played and improving results. Honestly, apart from the Premier League, which is in a league of its own for purely economic reasons, I don’t see much difference between the other top five leagues. There is no top clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, PSG or Bayern in Serie A, but let’s not forget that Inter have reached two Champions League finals in the last three seasons and Atalanta have won a Europa League in that time.”

The biggest shock by far of course came at the San Siro given Inter’s recent pedigree in the Champions League. Buonfino expands on the reaction in Italy: ” It was hugely negative, as it should be. Bodø/Glimt is certainly a very organised team, without the fatigue of a league campaign behind them, but the gap between them and Inter was too big for this to happen. Inter will have to lick their wounds after this poor performance, but there are still two competitions to win, for them one of which is the Serie A, which they are already in a great position in.”